The Time Varying Relation Between Consumer Confidence and Equities

We examine the impact of changes in consumer confidence measures on future stock index returns. Our analysis is built on the growing understanding that investor sentiment is an important factor in the stock market. By using frequency dependent regression methods, we show that there is a time-varying relation between consumer confidence and stock returns. Higher levels of consumer confidence imply greater returns in the short term but negative returns in the medium term. However, this effect is only observed for the small firm index. Moreover, there is evidence to suggest that consumer confidence is significantly affected by stock returns in reverse causality.     

制造业企业开展套期保值业务的现状及对策分析

在经济全球化背景下,制造业企业在原材料采购和产品销售方面,面临着巨大的价格波动风险。制造业企业如何充分利用期货市场开展套期保值业务来规避价格风险,是企业必须面对的一个重要课题。文章通过对上市的制造业企业展开抽样调查,了解我国上市的制造业企业开展套期保值业务的现状及存在的问题,据此提出强化期货知识培训、丰富期货品种、加强期货市场创新、降低交易成本等方式,提高企业参与套保的积极性,发挥期货市场为实体经济发展服务的广度和深度。     

融资融券在我国的发展研究

融资融券交易业务是与证券现货交易对应的一种证券交易业务。融资融券交易业务是证券市场上证券公司同投资者之间发生的资金或证券的借贷关系,可以分为证券市场融资交易和证券市场融券交易两方面。我国刚刚在市场上公开融资融券业务,还有很多不成熟的地方并且面临着融资融券带来的风险。对融资融券进行分析和研究,通过对比和比较的方法,选择适合我国的融资融券发展模式并提出相关对策建议,为我国的证券市场保驾护航,保障投资者的利益。     

欧洲能源交易所介绍

欧洲能源交易所（EEX）是全球仅次于欧洲气候交易所（ECX）的碳交易平台,其在电力市场、天然气市场和碳排放权交易市场均享有较高声誉。本文介绍了欧洲能源交易所在欧盟碳市场中的作用、交易产品、市场监察、结算服务等,以为我国碳交易所和碳市场的发展提供经验支持和智力支撑。     

Corruption and Economic Efficiency: Panel Data Evidence

Abstract

This paper investigates empirically the effect of corruption on countries' economic efficiency. By using a sample of 79 countries for the time period 2000–2006 the paper applies DEA window analysis and econometric panel data techniques. The results reveal that there is a U-shaped relationship between countries' corruption perception levels and economic efficiency. Furthermore, it appears that corruption has a negative effect on countries' economic efficiency. For the first time the turning points of such a relationship are being produced indicating that on average terms and regardless of countries' economic structure, Corruption Perception Index (CPI) above five initiate a positive effect on a countries' economic efficiency.     

中国绿色创新指数的分布动态演进与区域差异

研究目标:编制中国绿色创新指数,考察各区域指数的分布动态、区域差异及空间收敛特征。研究方法:建立绿色创新指数评价体系、采用时空极差熵权法赋权指标,利用世界知识产权组织绿色专利清单在线检索工具和采用爬虫技术检索、匹配、汇总国家知识产权局绿色专利数据,采用社会网络分析法(Social Network Analysis, SNA)测度绿色技术创新辐射力,采用Kernel估计分析绿色创新分布动态演进,采用Dagum基尼系数分解东中西绿色创新空间差距来源,采用空间杜宾模型考察绿色创新空间β条件收敛特征。研究发现:我国整体及东中西各地区绿色创新水平均呈总体上升趋势,源于绿色技术创新能力、绿色技术创新辐射力与绿色创新制度支撑力三者“携手并进”;绿色创新水平较高的城市集中分布于经济发达地区并具有较高行政级别特征,北京、深圳、上海、广州及主要省会城市稳居前列;我国整体及东中西地区核密度图均呈现“曲线右移、峰值先升后降、宽度收窄后扩大”的特征;东中西区域内部及区域间差异均呈逐渐下降趋势;绿色创新存在空间β条件收敛效应,且俱乐部收敛特征也较为显著,但在不同空间权重矩阵、不同地区样本中收敛速度存在差异。研究创...     

How do market conditions impact price-TOM relationship? Evidence from real estate owned (REO) sales

Empirical evidence on the relationship between real estate price and selling time (time-on-market (TOM)) is mixed as to whether the price-TOM relationship is positive or negative. Competing theories also suggest opposite predictions about TOM’s impact on selling price. The article examines the price-TOM relationship against the background of varying market conditions and highlights the impact of these conditions on the relationship. The theoretical analysis extends search theory and Lazear’s model to changing market conditions and reconciles their predictions on the relationship. The empirical analysis refines the investigation of the price-TOM relationship by revealing the cross-effect of market conditions and TOM on price. The findings confirm that the price-TOM relationship can indeed be positive or negative depending on these conditions. However, except for the case of an extremely bad market, the relationship is generally positive. This outcome occurs because search effort (indicated by TOM) brings significant price benefit that is large enough to offset all but the worst market price declines. Additional analysis confirms that the findings are not altered by the potential endogeneity between price and TOM.     

The relationship between information technology capability,inventory efficiency,and shareholder wealth: A firm-level empirical analysis

Inventories represent an important strategic resource for firms, with implications for shareholder wealth. As such, firms expend considerable effort in managing their inventories efficiently. Among other factors, information technology (IT) capability can play an important role in enabling inventory efficiency and financial performance. However, insight into the chain-of-effects linking IT capability, inventory efficiency, and stock market returns and risk remains limited. In this paper, we provide a conceptual model outlining the relationships between these constructs. Next, we evaluate the model using secondary information on firms from multiple industries across the 10-year time period of 2000–2009. Our analysis confirms that firms’ IT capability plays a significant role in enhancing their inventory efficiency, which, in turn, is observed to increase stock market returns. Our results also reveal that firms’ IT capability directly reduces their stock market risk and enhances their stock market returns. Taken together, these findings, along with the conceptual model that we advance, have important research and managerial implications.     

“限购令”是抑制房价上涨的有效政策工具吗？

2010年以来我国政府实施的五次房地产宏观调控中,以数量管制性质的“限购令”最为严苛,“限购令”对近年来我国住宅价格快速上涨趋势产生了怎样的效果？本文按照户籍和限购地域两个标准对限购政策了进行细分,在倍差法的研究框架内,通过动态面板模型GMM估计来评估限购政策细则对抑制住宅价格上涨的效果。实证研究发现：(1)对非户籍购房人实施限购的政策效果最为明显;(2)限购范围影响政策效果,仅在市区范围内限购难以起到抑制房价上涨的作用。通过对限购政策效果的评估,本文认为,投资(投机)性需求是推动我国住宅价格上升的重要力量,我国房地产泡沫的根源在于我国粗放的经济增长方式,通过货币超发带动经济增长的发展模式是房地产泡沫的根源所在,也是我国房地产市场调控的难度所在。     

一种改进的不完全指数复制方法

本文在考虑交易成本和投资组合动态调整的基础上,建立混合整数线性规划模型,引入内核搜索分析框架进行近似求解,并利用沪深300进行实证研究。研究发现,一是相比于基本内核搜索法,增强型内核搜索法仅在基准指数成分股数量很大时才会较大幅度提高求解质量;二是考虑投资组合动态调整的模型不仅更稳健,而且跟踪的继承性和保持性更好,尤其适用于单边市场;三是过度刻画现实交易特征一定程度上会降低不完全指数复制模型的复制和预测效果。